At the beginning of the realignments and convergence of political forces into the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the refrain from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), feeling that it has consolidated its stranglehold on political power in the country, was that the opposition coalition is a paperweight, which posed no political threat. The leaders of APC and their attack dogs have been dismissing ADC, calling it a political party made up of disgruntled elements, who are, at best, political losers. This is not surprising. Complacency has historically been the undoing of dominant political forces.

Almost 12 years ago, the same scenario played out in Nigeria’s polity when the now dismembered and castrated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was the ruling political party. At the epoch of its reign, the PDP was so full of itself and blinded by its self-importance that it failed to recognise and accept that the APC, then a new amalgam of the main opposition forces, was a threat. The PDP continued to figuratively chase rats at that time while its house burned. Resulting from this complacency, a political volcano did hit PDP, which took it out of power and reduced it to nothingness of today.

Today, ADC, a quieter but determined force, is gaining momentum in the polity. The opposition coalition is steadily getting into its fold political actors who are unimpressed by conduct of those in power. You may call them disgruntled elements. They could be branded strange bedfellows or forces that cannot be reckoned with. However, the message is becoming clear: Watch out, ADC is coming.

Since 2023, Nigerian politics has largely revolved around the APC, leaving other political parties struggling for relevance. The PDP, which was, prior to the emergence of the President Bola Tinubu government, the main opposition political party, was frontally attacked, with the orchestrated leadership tussle that has made it irrelevant in the polity. The Labour Party, the then Third Force propelled by the Peter Obi momentum, was also brutally attacked with leadership crisis. The LP is also lying prostrate, with the forces and elements that made it a force to be reckoned with, to the extent of coming close third in a presidential election where a winner could barely secure 34 per per cent in the official result, exiting for good. With this setting in PDP and LP, the APC became the giant in the political firmament, prancing around like the biblical Goliath and daring anybody to challenge it.

Interestingly, the ADC has begun to redefine this narrative. Once considered a fringe player, the party is now positioning itself as an ultimate alternative for Nigerians disillusioned by happenings regarding governance of the country. The ADC’s growing appeal lies not just in rhetoric but in its strategic focus on inclusivity, grassroots mobilisation and reform-driven governance. The party may have people who are not in control of any level of governance in the country. However, it is galvanising the support of people, with a political force that cannot be totally wished away.

One of the ADC’s strongest advantages, heading into 2027 is its ability to attract a diverse coalition of politicians, technocrats and young leaders. ADC is quietly opening its doors to those seeking a more stable and transparent political platform. You have Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufai, David Mark, Enyinnaya Abaribe, Chibuike Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola and many senators, who have their followers. There are also young Nigerian who have seen Obi as their rallying point, ready to support the political party. This influx of fresh faces could significantly reshape the party’s national reach and electoral viability.

Equally important is the mood of the Nigerian electorate. Across the country, citizens, even in the face of shameful sycophancy, are increasingly being vocal about issues such as economic hardship, unemployment, insecurity and governance failures. Many voters, particularly the youth, are showing a willingness to look beyond traditional party loyalties and oldbreed politicians. In this shifting landscape, ADC’s message of accountability, innovation and people-centred policies is beginning to resonate.

For the APC, the rise of the ADC should serve as a warning. It signals growing dissatisfaction that could translate into electoral challenges. The APC may be busy recruiting governors unto its fold. The ruling political party may, using the Machiavellian tactics, be wooing or coercing elected politicians to join it. However, the truth remains that governors and elected officials are not the millions of Nigerian electorate who will vote to determine who will be their number one leader in 2027.

Peter Obi proved, with the 2023 presidential election, that governors’ presence in a political party is not the ultimate determinant of election outcomes. He proved that the electorate hold the aces even in the face of election result manipulation fears. Without a single governor in his then LP, Obi garnered a whopping six million votes in a presidential election in which he was seen as an underdog without political structure. He energised the youth, propelled adults who were disillusioned by the status quo and succeeded in driving home the message that a new Nigeria was possible. ADC, therefore, may not have a serving governor as a member but as long as the electorate will exercise their franchise, are ready to defend their votes and the electoral process is transparent, it stands a chance in the coming election.

However, the road ahead for ADC is not without obstacles. Building nationwide structures, maintaining internal cohesion and converting public interest into actual votes remain significant challenges. Nigerian elections are complex, requiring not just popularity but also robust organisation, funding and strategic alliances. The fact that destabilising forces have reared their ugly heads, leading to the sudden non-recognition of the Senator David Mark National Working Committee (NWC) of the ADC by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), shows the uphill task ADC faces ahead of 2027 elections, especially regarding the ruling party and their powerful members.

Even in the face of the manifestation of the forces of destabilisation in ADC, the signs of the political party’s irresistible force are hard to ignore. From increased visibility in political discourse to its expanding support base, ADC is steadily carving out a space for itself in Nigeria’s political future. Whether it can fully capitalise on this momentum remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: The political landscape in 2027 could possible be a two-horse race, which puts ADC in good stead.

As the countdown to 2027 continues, the message echoes louder, to the effect that ADC is no longer just participating. The political party is preparing to compete, to challenge and, perhaps, to surprise. The ADC’s growing strength will be a veritable challenge to APC’s position. If the ADC continues on the current trajectory, the 2027 election may well mark a turning point in the nation’s political history.

For this to happen easily, the ADC should ensure that the choice of its presidential candidate reflects the mood of the moment – to have a presidential candidate the electorate would see as the new face of governance and Nigeria, a candidate seen as the most credible option, a symbol of accountability and hope for change, a candidate who sees politics as service rather than patronage.

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