In politics, business, and other things in life, common purpose and honesty are essential for the development of mutual trust. Specifically, in politics, pragmatism is a key element to the pursuit of power and the achievement of goals. So is idealism. But these virtues must be earned. Unfortunately, since Bola Tinubu became Nigeria’s President, common purpose, honesty, compassion seem to have taken a flight, replaced by half-truths in the face of damning realities in the country that call for a leader’s urgent attention. Besides what looks like the President’s compassion and character deficit, another character flaw that most Nigerians may not have noticed is his uncanny ability to tell the truth, selectively. What President Tinubu is doing to Nigerians can be likened to a political version of a businessman’s interest in balance sheets. His goal is your vote in 2027.                                     

After the president’s speech on the nation’s 65th Independence anniversary last Wednesday, one of the main topics of conversation for Nigerians was the president’s ledger of claims on the economy. Claims are sweet when the tummy is full. The harsh economic winds blowing in almost every household – a direct result of the government’s policies – would not permit such  damn lies to go unchallenged. It’s so because, Nigeria’s economy is still in negative territory. It hasn’t yet turned the corner, contrary to the president’s claim.               

These are some of President’s  briefcase of claims: “Our administration is setting things right. I am pleased to report that we have finally turned the corner. The worst is over, I say. Yesterday’s pains are giving way to relief”. He also claimed without irrefutable evidence that the economy under his leadership “is recovering fast, and the reforms that started 2 years ago are delivering tangible results”. He selectively chose the ‘moon and ignored the cheese’. It may be true that the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for Q2 2025, grew by 4.23 percent, more than the 3.4 percent projected by the International Monetary Fund(IMF). And you ask, if indeed, the GDP has improved, why are prices of goods still very high? Rice, kerosene, cooking gas, among other items are almost out of the reach of  most Nigerians. 

He was also all over the moon that the economy has “attained a record-breaking increase in non-oil revenue, achieving the 2025 target in August with N20trn, and in September, raised to N3.65trn, 411 percent higher than the amount raised in May 2023”. He added, “our tax-to-GDP ratio has risen to 13.5 percent from less than 10 percent”. He  beat his chest that the ratio is expected to increase further when the new tax law takes effect in January 2026. In all of these wild claims, another question is: what’s the impact of this ‘awesome’ achievements in the standard of living of Nigerians? Perhaps the good thing about the new tax law is that, in the words of Mr.Taiwo Oyedele, who chaired the Presidential Fiscal and Policy Committee on Tax Reforms, is that, effective January 2026, prostitutes, ‘runs girls’, influencers, will begin to pay tax. Oyedele said that much recently during a church service in Lagos.                             

This government has made a heavy weather of the new tax law. But it hasn’t convinced Nigerians that the new tax law won’t add to their burden. The claim that the new tax law is part of expanding the tax base is just part of the half-truth to hide the real truth. Amid all these ‘goodies’ about the economy in two years, why did President Tinubu ignore to tell Nigerians that the country’s Debt-to-GDP ratio was 52.7 percent in August 2025? This exceeded the Fiscal Responsibility Act’s benchmark of 40 percent. The ratio also indicates Nigeria’s total public debt relative to the size of the economy. Even after rebasing by NBS that put the nominal GDP at $243bn, Nigeria’s economy by GDP is  ranked 4th in Africa, trailing South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.             

That remains a topic of concern due to borrowing spree by the government. This seems to have become a habit. The president also selectively, and deliberately,  ignored to tell Nigerians that he has borrowed over N57trn in two years, and what the loans were used for. He inherited a debt of N87.37trn from former President Muhammadu Buhari. Statistics show that what Tinubu had borrowed in 2 years was  75.2 percent of total loans taken  Buhari in 8 years. The President said he inherited a “near empty treasury” in 2023, yet less than one year in office, the administration spent N21bn in renovating the official residence of the vice president, N150bn($238.5m) to buy a brand new A330-200 presidential aircraft, N1.5bn on choice vehicles for the office of the First Lady.    Also, N57.6bn was also spent on Special Utility Vehicles(SUVs) for senators and members of the House of Representatives. Yet, majority of Nigerians are living below poverty level. Questions: Are you better off today than you were before Tinubu was sworn in? Who says politics in Nigeria is not interesting? Is the economy today on the right track as the president has claimed? According to  former Statistician General, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dr Yemi Kale, about 89 million Nigerians, or 40 percent of the population, are living below the poverty line today. Kale, who is currently the Chief Economist/MD Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, describes Nigeria as the “only country with the second highest number of poor people in the world after India”. Poverty has been weaponised.             

No doubt, these dynamics are worsening. They pose a present danger to the very promise of Nigeria’s founding fathers. It’s a combination of leadership failure, policy missteps and costly delays in implementing concrete policies that will impact the lives of the people. But here we are: our leaders are lying with statistics that the economy is in a better shape. Truth is, the economy is at a crossroads. Dr Abraham Nwankwo, former Director General, Debt Management Office (DMO), in his column, ‘Treasures in Truth’, in The Niche(a reputable online newspaper), summarised the fudging of facts on the economy in a poetic language: “On dead statistics they stand. They say the economy is stable. They boast that inflation is down, and they blow their trumpet loud. But their data hide the social costs. They obscure the plight of many who are hopelessly out of job. And prices are down as they claim because many have no money to buy”. He asked the question: “So, what manner of stability is that”. He called them, “Fake Nation-builders”.     

“How  to  Lie with Statistics”, is the title of a book by Darrell Huff. It’s a window into why leaders mislead the people to achieve perceived political agenda. He says that leaders lie with statistics by “misrepresenting data, selectively presenting information, using biased samples, manipulating graphs, or defining terms misleadingly to support a specific goal or agenda”. This statistical manipulation, which he calls “statisticulation”,  aims to create a biased perception of reality” for personal gains. That may be where Nigeria is today – trapped in the hole of people who want to be leaders- but not in the very sense of the word, to paraphrase Robert A. Caro, using  power for great purposes. Caro is a presidential historian.       

What we are experiencing today in the hands of APC government are lessons in power. In a conversation with Harvard Business Review, April 2006, Caro, a great political biographer noted that “no one can lead who does not first acquire power, and no leader can be great who does not know how to use power”. However, he says that “the trouble is that the combination of the two skills is rare”. Perhaps that’s the reason why what leaders do while they are trying to get power is not necessarily what they do after they have it. Taken as a whole,  are you  surprised that the Bola Tinubu you knew as Governor of Lagos state(1999-2003), a man who shaped a public image of himself as a consummate politician, an advocate of the poor who could produce something for everyone without cost to anyone, someone  who now appears insensitive to the plight of ordinary Nigerians? What’s responsible for his present behaviour? Has he undergone a sort of sea change in a negative sense, turning from a visionary, archetypical politician, to a perceived hater of the downtrodden? You answer!

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